Fire Weather Forecast for this Week

The Tuesday forecast gives us some hope for precipitation in about ten days.  As you know, a fire in the Cowichan River bottom sparked up over the weekend (human caused) and four firehalls, forestry crews and two helicopters kept it to ten acres.  We are still in EXTREME.

Issued: 14:00pm PDT Tuesday, October 11th, 2022. 

SYNOPSIS: A ridge of high pressure is building over Coastal BC in the wake of yesterday’s cold front that brought moderate gusty winds of 40-60 km/h to the Coastal Fire Centre. The ridge will provide another stretch of above seasonal temperatures and clear skies through the week and into the weekend. Winds will be generally light and inflow at 10-15 km/h with locally higher gusts through the deeper valleys and inlets. While the fresh northwesterly flow aloft has greatly improved air quality and visibilities, the stagnant air mass under this week’s ridge of high pressure will likely lead to increasing haze throughout the week. Winds shift to outflow for one day on Wednesday as the ridge shifts inland. Overnight recoveries will be good at valley bottom but poor above approximately 700 metres where the thermal belt maintains warmer and drier conditions.

OUTLOOK: The ridiculously resilient ridge of high pressure persists through to Sunday and possibly longer yielding unseasonably warm and very dry conditions. The next chance at any precipitation doesn’t appear until October 21st or 22nd. The one exception being a trough that crosses the North Coast Thursday and Friday delivering rain to Haida Gwaii and northern most sections of the Mid Coast. Otherwise, all south coast zones remain high and dry.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Good confidence given the relatively benign weather pattern.

6 TO 10 DAY: Long range models suggest that the ridge will shift eastwards into Alberta around October 20th or 21st allowing some much-needed precipitation to finally reach the Coast. More seasonal temperatures would also ensue. 

Fire Chief J. Caldbeck